The E-axes Forum on Climate Change, Macroeconomics, and Finance

Étienne Espagne

“Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition”

Event description

This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. It develops a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. The qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition – a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace – could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.


Anastasia Pappas

Étienne Espagne

Étienne Espagne is a senior climate economist at the World Bank EFI chief economist office and an associate researcher at CERDI. His research focuses on building theories, models and methodologies to assess the macro-financial aspects of low-carbon policies as well as climate and nature impacts, especially in developing and emerging economies context. He co-leads two major programs at the World Bank on analytical tool development and capacity development for finance ministries. Prior to this, as a senior economist at AFD (Agence Française de Développement), the bilateral development bank for the French government, he developed and contributed to a research program on the modelization and evaluation of climate damages, adaptation and mitigation strategies in developing and emerging economies. He holds a PhD in environmental economics from the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) and is also a graduate from the French École des Mines de Paris and the Paris School of Economics. He has published several papers in academic journals in the field of climate change and energy economics and regularly teaches at Paris 1 University, EHESS, Ecole Polytechnique and ENSTA Paristech. He has previously worked at France Stratégie, CEPII and CIRED.

Paper and slides

Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition_Paper

Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition_Slides



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