The E-axes Forum on Climate Change, Macroeconomics, and Finance

Ishan Nath

“How Much Will Global Warming Cool Global Growth?”

Young Scholars' Webinar on Climate Finance and Economics

From the abstract:

Do rising temperatures decrease the level of GDP in affected countries or the permanent growth rate of their GDP? Differing answers to this question lead prominent estimates of climate damages to diverge by an order of magnitude. This paper combines indirect evidence on economic growth with new empirical estimates of the dynamic effects of temperature on GDP to argue that warming has persistent, but not permanent, effects on growth. We start by presenting a range of evidence that technology flows tether country growth rates together, preventing temperature change from causing them to diverge permanently. We then use data from a panel of countries to show that temperature shocks have large and persistent effects on GDP, driven in part by persistence in temperature itself. These estimates imply projected future impacts that are three to five times larger than level effect estimates and two to four times smaller than permanent growth effect estimates, with larger discrepancies for initially hot and cold countries.  

The working paper and the slides of the presentation will be posted shortly on our website.

Diego Känzig
Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at Northwestern University

Organizing Committee

Michael Barnett, Arizona State University
Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis, Imperial College Business School
Ishita Sen, Harvard Business School
Diego Känzig, Northwestern University

Ishan Nath

Ishan Nath is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco working on topics related to climate change, growth, trade, and development. Prior to joining the Fed, Ishan completed his PhD in economics from the University of Chicago in 2019, as well as postdoctoral fellowships with the Climate Impact Lab and the International Economics Section at Princeton University. Before his PhD, Ishan completed a B.A. in Economics and a B.S. in Earth Systems at Stanford, and an MPhil in Economics at Oxford, where he studied as a Rhodes Scholar. When he is not thinking about economics, Ishan can be found either playing, watching, or talking about basketball.

Paper and slides

How Much Will Global Warming Cool Global Growth? (Paper)

How Much Will Global Warming Cool Global Growth? (Slides)



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