The E-axes Forum Research Prize

The E-axes Forum awards an annual prize to recognize outstanding research conducted by young scholars in macroeconomic policies and sustainability.

2022 Winner

Filippo Natoli

Senior Economist at the Advanced Economies and International Finance Division of the Bank of Italy

"The macroeconomic effects of temperature surprise shocks"


The question of how climate change affects the economy through temperatures is high on the economic research agenda, as the identification of exogenous shocks from weather variations is still an open issue. Using daily county-level data since 1970, we construct a series of temperature shocks for the United States that capture the average surprise effect of relatively high and low temperatures experienced in each season, isolating an unanticipated component at business cycle frequency. Temperature surprise shocks in the US have been a balanced mix of heat and cold surprises and reduced in size in recent times. Estimates made with local projections show a negative impact on the US economy via both consumption and investment, while the effect on prices is more muted and varies over time. The Federal Reserve does react by adjusting its economic projections and cutting interest rates, with effects spreading out through the yield curve.

Topic of this Year’s Prize

Applicants must submit a completed but unpublished paper on:

“Challenges Climate Change Poses for Central Banks"

Topics of interest include, but are not restricted to:
  • How can central bankers best use their balance sheets to promote the transition to net zero?
  • How should central bankers integrate climate considerations into their lending and collateral frameworks?
  • How should monetary policymakers incorporate climate into their regular, periodic decisions?
  • What are the challenges that incomplete and imprecise climate-related data pose for central bank decision-making?

Prize Award Criteria

The E-axes Forum will assess papers using three selection criteria: i) innovative thinking and scientific merit, ii) implications for policymakers, and iii) relevance to the themes described above.  The prize amount is $5,000 and is intended to support the recipient(s) in their research activities.   The total cash award is the same for both single and co-authored papers.  Should more than one winning paper be selected, the total cash award will be distributed equally between the authors of the prize-winning papers.

Eligibility Requirement

The prize is intended to support young researchers in their early career development.  Eligible candidates must either have completed their PhD in 2015 or later; or are completing their PhD in 2022-2023.  Both single and co-authored papers will be considered.  However, all authors of a co-authored paper must comply with the eligibility requirement.

Prize Committee Members

Patrick Bolton, Imperial College and Columbia University

Stephen G. Cecchetti, Brandeis University

Pierre Monnin, Council on Economic Policies

Fernanda Nechio, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Lucrezia Reichlin, London Business School

Glenn D. Rudebusch, Brookings Institution

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