“The macroeconomic effects of temperature surprise shocks”

Filippo will present findings from his recent paper “The macroeconomic effects of temperature surprise shocks.”

From the abstract:

The question of how climate change affects the economy through temperatures is high on the economic research agenda, as the identification of exogenous shocks from weather variations is still an open issue. Using daily county-level data since 1970, we construct a series of temperature shocks for the United States that capture the average surprise effect of relatively high and low temperatures experienced in each season, isolating an unanticipated component at business cycle frequency. Temperature surprise shocks in the US have been a balanced mix of heat and cold surprises and reduced in size in recent times. Estimates made with local projections show a negative impact on the US economy via both consumption and investment, while the effect on prices is more muted and varies over time. The Federal Reserve does react by adjusting its economic projections and cutting interest rates, with effects spreading out through the yield curve.