Filippo Natoli

“The macroeconomic effects of temperature surprise shocks”

Event description

Filippo will present findings from his recent paper “The macroeconomic effects of temperature surprise shocks.”

From the abstract:

The question of how climate change affects the economy through temperatures is high on the economic research agenda, as the identification of exogenous shocks from weather variations is still an open issue. Using daily county-level data since 1970, we construct a series of temperature shocks for the United States that capture the average surprise effect of relatively high and low temperatures experienced in each season, isolating an unanticipated component at business cycle frequency. Temperature surprise shocks in the US have been a balanced mix of heat and cold surprises and reduced in size in recent times. Estimates made with local projections show a negative impact on the US economy via both consumption and investment, while the effect on prices is more muted and varies over time. The Federal Reserve does react by adjusting its economic projections and cutting interest rates, with effects spreading out through the yield curve.


Anastasia Pappas
Founder, E-axes Forum

Filippo Natoli

Filippo Natoli is a Senior Economist at the Advanced Economies and International Finance Division of the Bank of Italy. His research interests lie at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance, with a focus on monetary and fiscal policy and on the economic implications of climate change. His work has been published in the Journal of International Economics, IMF Economic Review, and International Journal of Central Banking, among others. He holds a PhD in Economics from LUISS University of Rome, Italy.

Paper and slides

The macroeconomic effects of temperature surprise shocks (Paper)

The macroeconomic effects of temperature surprise shocks (Slides)



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